BTC Price Prediction: Can Bitcoin Sustain Its Rally Amid Whale Movements and Macro Uncertainty?

#BTC

• Technical Outlook: BTC shows neutral-bullish signals trading above 20MA but needs MACD improvement
• Whale Activity: Large movements (80K BTC) may cause short-term volatility
• Macro Drivers: U.S. debt concerns and institutional adoption provide structural support

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: July 2025 Outlook

According to BTCC financial analyst Sophia, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at, slightly above its 20-day moving average (MA) of, indicating a neutral-to-bullish short-term trend. The MACD histogram remains negative (-1,420.14), suggesting some bearish momentum, but the price holding above the middle Bollinger Band () signals potential consolidation with upside bias. A breakout above the upper Bollinger Band () could confirm bullish momentum.

Market Sentiment: Whales and Macro Factors Drive BTC Volatility

BTCC analyst Sophia highlights mixed sentiment in bitcoin markets. On one hand,(80,000 BTC moved) andcreate selling pressure concerns. However, fundamental drivers remain strong:shows HODLer conviction, while Novogratz's bullish stance on BTC as a hedge againstprovides macroeconomic support. Regulatory developments like Bybit'sin India may cause localized volatility but don't alter the global bullish thesis.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Bybit to Impose 18% GST on Crypto Services for Indian Users Starting 2025

Bybit will enforce an 18% Goods and Services Tax (GST) on all chargeable services for Indian users beginning July 7, 2025. The move aligns with India's tax regulations for virtual digital assets, impacting trading fees, withdrawals, staking, and even spread-based transactions.

The tax applies universally—spot trading, derivatives, fiat conversions, and recovery of misdirected deposits all incur the levy. A 0.1% trading fee on a 100,000 USDT Bitcoin sale now carries an additional 18 USDT GST, reducing final proceeds to 99,882 USDT. Transaction breakdowns will display GST automatically, eliminating manual input.

Margins, Earn products, and Bybit Pay services face identical treatment. Certain offerings will disappear from the Indian market by July 9, though specifics remain undisclosed. The policy signals tightening crypto compliance in one of Asia's most dynamic retail trading markets.

Billionaire Bitcoin Whales Awaken Amid Price Surge, Moving 80,000 BTC

Bitcoin's approach to all-time highs has triggered unusual activity among long-dormant whale addresses. Eight entities holding over 80,000 BTC—originally mined in 2010-2011—have suddenly moved funds after years of inactivity. These movements represent 1% of Bitcoin's early supply suddenly entering circulation.

Market observers note peculiar timing. These whales remained passive during previous ATH breaches above $111K, yet are activating now as prices test $110K again. The transactions suggest strategic positioning rather than panic selling—BTC's price stability despite the movements indicates sophisticated liquidity management.

The awakening of 14-year-old holdings raises fundamental questions. Are these pioneers anticipating a liquidity crunch? Positioning for institutional demand? Or simply rebalancing generational wealth? Their actions carry disproportionate weight—these addresses represent living Bitcoin history making its first market impact.

Bitcoin Holders Accumulate $1.2 Trillion in Unrealized Profits as HODLing Trend Prevails

Bitcoin investors are sitting on a staggering $1.2 trillion in unrealized profits, according to Glassnode data. Despite prices nearing all-time highs, the market shows no signs of widespread profit-taking. Long-term holding strategies dominate as the 'Liveliness' on-chain metric confirms assets are being held longer.

The supply held by long-term investors has reached record levels, signaling continued accumulation rather than distribution. This HODLer behavior suggests conviction in Bitcoin's future upside potential. However, Glassnode warns this massive unrealized profit could transform into selling pressure if market sentiment shifts or prices break out of their current range.

Best Crypto to Buy Now as Trump’s Vietnam Deal Ignites Bitcoin and Stocks

President Donald Trump's historic trade deal with Vietnam, slashing tariffs from 46% to 20%, sent shockwaves through global markets. Bitcoin surged over 3% as institutional investors cheered reduced trade friction, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rallied in tandem.

The policy shift underscores how geopolitical maneuvers increasingly intertwine digital assets with traditional finance. This convergence creates fresh opportunities for crypto investors navigating volatile market conditions.

Retail giants like Nike and Lululemon stand to benefit from reduced Vietnamese import costs, potentially freeing capital for blockchain investments. The market reaction highlights crypto's growing role as a barometer for global trade sentiment.

Can Bitcoin Bulls Withstand the Re-awakening of Satoshi-era Whales?

Bitcoin's price faced rejection at key resistance levels, dropping 2.2% to $107,477 amid heightened volatility. The movement of 50,000 BTC by Satoshi-era whales—the largest single-day transfer for decade-old coins—sparked bearish sentiment. Exchange volumes have stagnated since June, averaging $5.9B monthly, barely above the $5.5B yearly baseline.

Market dynamics now hinge on dormant supply entering circulation. Early miner rewards resurfacing during low speculative demand create asymmetric downside risks. Glassnode data confirms weakening momentum, with midterm prospects contingent on whether institutional flows offset whale distributions.

Novogratz Sees U.S. Debt Crisis as Bullish Catalyst for Bitcoin

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, interprets Ray Dalio's warnings about U.S. national debt as a long-term bullish signal for Bitcoin. The mounting fiscal instability, according to Novogratz, will drive demand for scarce assets like BTC and gold. While Dalio remains skeptical of Bitcoin's privacy features, Novogratz projects BTC will surpass gold's market cap by 2030.

Persistent political gridlock ensures no meaningful solution to the debt crisis, Novogratz argues. This environment favors decentralized assets over traditional financial instruments. Equities remain part of the hedge strategy, but hard assets are positioned as primary beneficiaries of monetary debasement.

Whale Movements Trigger Bitcoin Volatility Amid Market Uncertainty

Bitcoin's price tumbled to $107,412 following a brief rally, as billion-dollar whale transactions and rumors of U.S. sanctions against China rattled investors. A dormant 2011 wallet moved 80,000 BTC ($7.6 billion) after 14 years of inactivity, sparking speculation about intent—though no clear sell-off materialized. "The audacity to move $1.1 billion in BTC without a test transaction shows whales operate by different rules," noted analyst Lark Davis.

Markets now hinge on the $108,000 support level holding. A retest of $110,000 remains plausible if macro risks subside, but altcoins face renewed pressure. The next 72 hours could prove decisive, with traders scrutinizing geopolitical developments and tariff policies that may further destabilize crypto valuations.

Is BTC a good investment?

Based on current technicals and market dynamics, BTCC's Sophia presents a measured bullish case for Bitcoin:

Key considerations: 1) BTC remains a high-risk asset, 2) Dollar-cost averaging mitigates timing risk, 3) 5-10% portfolio allocation balances upside with volatility.